Why China doesn’t mind being left out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Allison Jackson,
For starters, China doesn’t need to belong to the TPP to enjoy some of the perks that come with being a member.
China clearly doesn’t require the TPP to enhance its already sizeable influence in the world.The China-led AIIB, which has the support of dozens of countries, aims to fund infrastructure projects in the region and could help Beijing buy the support of its neighbors.China is also on track to become one of the world’s biggest overseas investors by 2020，and that gives Beijing a lot of economic and political clout.
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Fortune
Leaving China out of the TPP is a terrible mistake
Felipe Caro , Christopher S. Tang
Supporters of the Trans-Pacific Partnership say the trade deal would help counter China’s influence over the Pacific, but that argument is flawed. China’s dominance is inevitable.
if one looks at the world’s supply chain, it’s clear that it’s impossible to leave China out of the world’s biggest trade deals. Given its investments in other developing countries, China has the capability to design, develop, and produce products that can easily make their way into the U.S. market via TPP intermediaries, thereby reducing tariffs it might otherwise have to pay.
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Foreign Policy
What Will the TPP Mean for China?
BARRY NAUGHTON, ARTHUR R. KROEBER, GUY DE JONQUIÈRES, GRAHAM WEBSTER
First, the TPP shows the United States and Japan exercising leadership, stepping out ahead of the global community in their willingness to negotiate a new set of rules and obligations.Second, the TPP shifts economic balances and alliances within Asia.Third, TPP increases the pressures within China for more decisive economic reforms.
it will do much to “reduce Chinese economic preponderance” in the region. That preponderance is driven by China’s sheer size, its continued growth — which though slower than in the past is still faster than that of most other Asian economies — and its increasing centrality in global supply chains. Moreover, China has its own strategy for increasing its influence,The impact of the Belt and Road initiative will likely be felt more immediately and concretely than the effect of the TPP, many of whose features will phase in slowly over several years.
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The Diplomat
What Does China Think of the TPP? Shannon Tiezzi
Petri of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Michael G. Plummer of Johns Hopkins University estimated that China would see about $47 billion (in 2007 dollars) in lost income from the TPP, leaving its economic growth roughly 0.3 percent lower than could be expected without TPP. Not exactly a deathblow for China, but not welcome news given the existing trend toward slower growth.
China likely is thinking of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a free trade agreement that would include all ten ASEAN member states as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. Because RCEP talks officially kicked off in November 2012, it’s been seen in some ways as China’s answer to RCEP –and Beijing would very much like to have RCEP concluded sooner rather than later.
回复 ( 5 )
以下是本人摘录了一些国际媒体对于TPP对CN影响的观点集合，侵权请删
欢迎大家补充！！！！！！！！
声明：媒体观点不代表本人看法，如果觉得本人有断章取义之嫌，可以按文章题目作者检索（不过有的会404）。虽然基本都是大媒，但是报刊不比学术论文，论据支持有限。如大家有兴趣，我会抽时间从google scholar里整理一点东西。
先总结一下观点：
1，TPP目前细节未明，在US仍有较大阻力，而且参加国水平参差不齐，最重成品合约难免做出一些妥协。
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USA Today
Why China doesn’t mind being left out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Allison Jackson,
For starters, China doesn’t need to belong to the TPP to enjoy some of the perks that come with being a member.
China clearly doesn’t require the TPP to enhance its already sizeable influence in the world.The China-led AIIB, which has the support of dozens of countries, aims to fund infrastructure projects in the region and could help Beijing buy the support of its neighbors.China is also on track to become one of the world’s biggest overseas investors by 2020，and that gives Beijing a lot of economic and political clout.
——————————————————————————————————————-
Fortune
Leaving China out of the TPP is a terrible mistake
Felipe Caro , Christopher S. Tang
Supporters of the Trans-Pacific Partnership say the trade deal would help counter China’s influence over the Pacific, but that argument is flawed. China’s dominance is inevitable.
if one looks at the world’s supply chain, it’s clear that it’s impossible to leave China out of the world’s biggest trade deals. Given its investments in other developing countries, China has the capability to design, develop, and produce products that can easily make their way into the U.S. market via TPP intermediaries, thereby reducing tariffs it might otherwise have to pay.
———————————————————————————————————————-
Foreign Policy
What Will the TPP Mean for China?
BARRY NAUGHTON, ARTHUR R. KROEBER, GUY DE JONQUIÈRES, GRAHAM WEBSTER
First, the TPP shows the United States and Japan exercising leadership, stepping out ahead of the global community in their willingness to negotiate a new set of rules and obligations.Second, the TPP shifts economic balances and alliances within Asia.Third, TPP increases the pressures within China for more decisive economic reforms.
it will do much to “reduce Chinese economic preponderance” in the region. That preponderance is driven by China’s sheer size, its continued growth — which though slower than in the past is still faster than that of most other Asian economies — and its increasing centrality in global supply chains. Moreover, China has its own strategy for increasing its influence,The impact of the Belt and Road initiative will likely be felt more immediately and concretely than the effect of the TPP, many of whose features will phase in slowly over several years.
——————————————————————————————————————–
The Diplomat
What Does China Think of the TPP? Shannon Tiezzi
Petri of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Michael G. Plummer of Johns Hopkins University estimated that China would see about $47 billion (in 2007 dollars) in lost income from the TPP, leaving its economic growth roughly 0.3 percent lower than could be expected without TPP. Not exactly a deathblow for China, but not welcome news given the existing trend toward slower growth.
China likely is thinking of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a free trade agreement that would include all ten ASEAN member states as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. Because RCEP talks officially kicked off in November 2012, it’s been seen in some ways as China’s answer to RCEP –and Beijing would very much like to have RCEP concluded sooner rather than later.
主要是人心散了，队伍不好带。
短线上影响不大，但长线上最悲剧的就是倒退回90年中后期（加入世贸前）的生活~
若台湾加入tpp,对大陆影响也不大。虽然台湾一直经济靠大陆，安全靠美国。加入tpp对其环境经济上的大陆依赖症也极其有限。
因为大陆给台商都经商环境远好过其他地区，大陆出于政治经济多重考量给台湾真是优惠多多!例如，大陆开放市场给台湾，但是对其台湾市场的要求很低。这是实实在在都优惠，不是万水千山的美帝用空头支票可以相比的。
大家在谈到TPP的话题是似乎都比较敏感激动。但是知乎作为一个相较比较理性成熟的平台是不是大家可以结合更多的客观论据去发表意见呢。也许TPP 对中国来说不失为一次机遇。里面的条款虽然是美国主导确立的，但大体上还是引向未来更加成熟的贸易标准化方向。