Yang Lan onced interviewed Heavenly King Andy Lau (actor Liu Dehua), “In your 30+ years careers, is there any secret to success?” Andy Lau said, “Only one thing that I am really proud of, which is my credit.”
As no one won top prize of US lottery Power Ball last Saturday, it creates a record-breaking high prize which makes the lottery a positive-expectation investment and triggered a lottery madness across the US. After 10+ years, in my favorite 7-11 store, I bought a lottery ticket again. After sharing in my wechat frend circle, two friends on China trip vacations asked me to buy it for them. So I started reselling lottery.
I posted an announcement: “Now selling the only positive expectation lottery in history, Power Ball. Accept both domestic and international orders. $2 each, no extra fees. Give me a number, or we do it randomly. I will send out pictures after I get the tickets. I don’t take a cut, you get all the prizes if it happens. Tips is welcomed. In case I checked the wrong numbers, I won’t refund or pay your loss. I got 2 orders already!”
During operation, my clients send me money via wechat mobile payment, aka Hong Bao. I buy it, photo it and send the message. Usually, I will take pictures with a latest newspaper, San Jose Mercury News or USA Today, so it feels more historic.
Then I started promotions in my wechat groups: my college group and my high school group. I also replied a thread in my company’s misc maillist. Actually, per my colleagues’ request, I started a pool. Using Google Form for sign-up and Google Wallet for payment, all participants can share the total prizes, so everyone gets a better chance. Unfornately, it violates company policy that we cannot organize employees for gambling. So I have to stop it. During the several minutes life time of my pool, I already got 8 payments into my account, which I have to refund.
My global revenue is 222 USD, so I am definitely the forerunner of international lottery resales business. With 111 (for clients) + 3 (for myself) tickets at hands, I am taking over the biggest advantage facing the biggest opportunity this year.
In this lottery madness, almost all of my US classmates involved, almost all of my teammates bought in. It is very rare, especially for foreigners like us in US. During my visits to 7-11 and Safeway, everyone was doing it so that they don’t miss the chance to join a historic event.
Finally, someone in southcal Chino Hills (near LA) won the top prize, while my clients and I are not so lucky. But it is not a bad thing. Actually, most top prize winners didn’t end up well. Because easy money goes easily. I am happy that I don’t have to deal with my lawyer for the mixed relations. By law, such resales still count me as the owner, and I can only give the prize to my client as a gift. So it is double taxed.
Interestingly, there are 3 four-dollar prizes whose frequency is 1/38. It is very close to the theory chance published on Power Ball website: 1/38.32
The biggest benefits from this event is that it gives everyone a moment to rethink their dreams. Think about it, what’s your plan if you win. Among my colleagues, one said she will invite every team members to any place on the earth for vacation; another teammate said he will take the prize over 30 years, share first year’s money with team, share second year’s money with familiy, but he is not sure if he can survive the first two years’ raids. A girl said she will buy an island. A boy said he will buy the Lakers.
My posted plan is to be full-time blogger. By coincidence, Miss USTC Niu Niu also wants to be a full-time blogger, and she plans to buy global famous bloggers to advertise for her.
The biggest benefit for me is that, my credit value now raises up to 1.5 billion. Among all my clients, they do trust me not to run away with the top prize, so that they buy it from me. Yes, given a single choice between 1.5 billion and my credit, I will definitely choose my credit.
In this world, there are wealth which is way more valuable than money, and careers which is way more interesting than making money.
回复 ( 9 )
最近半个多月，美国彩票PowerBall史无前例的巨额奖金池在中国都被炒得火热，朋友圈甚至出现了代购彩票的业务。截止美东时间1月12日下午3点15分，特等奖（Jackpot）金额达到$1.5Billion，即15亿美元 ，这是全球有史以来最高的彩票奖金，扣税后也能拿到大约 9.3亿美元，换算成人民币是 60亿左右 。根据2015年的胡润富豪榜，差不多可以排进国内富豪top1000了。是不是两眼放光？心跳加速？
别急，据说中奖的概率比被雷劈还小，可是这概率到底是多少呢？良（xin）心（ji）彩票机构把每种中奖组合的概率都清清楚楚写在了官网上。
图1：彩票中奖概率。(Welcome to Powerball表1：中奖概率及期望。（美元）
从期望中可以看到，总的期望值是5.45美元，是购买彩票费用2美元的2倍多，看起来很划算的样子。但事实上这5.45美元中有5.13美元都是源自特等奖，其他所有奖项加起来的期望值才3毛多。也就是说，如果不考虑特等奖的话，买彩票这件事情还是很不划算的。而且这些期望都是没有考虑高额税收的情况，实际拿到的钱还要少得多。
最后祝大家运气蹭蹭蹭！大奖中中中！
———-
参考条目：
1. Powerball – Home
2. Powerball Odds
———-
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我的人品价值15亿美金
杨澜采访天王刘德华，“出道30年，有什么成功的秘诀吗？” 刘天王说，“出道三十年，只有一件事我对自己很得意，那就是人品好。”
在上周六开奖失败后，美国彩票Power Ball创下历史最高奖池，使得买彩票变成了一件期望收益为正的事，引发全美购买狂潮。在我常去的7-11店里，时隔十多年，我又一次买了彩票。发了朋友圈，点赞之外零星有两个人因故回国想托我代买，于是我开始了代购。
我在朋友圈里发了这样一则通知：“现提供史上唯一期望收益为正的彩票Power Ball国际国内代购，两刀一个，无手续费，可自选可机选。买好后我会拍照发货，中了奖金都是你的，您看着给我包个红包就好。如果我一时手滑输错号了，不负任何法律责任。发稿前已收到两个代购请求。”
然后具体的操作办法是，需要代购的朋友用微信红包按当时Google公布出的汇率付给我，然后我买了之后拍照发货。一般我会把彩票放在San Jose Mercury News或者USA Today的最新报纸上拍照，这样更有纪念意义。
随即我开始在本科班群里和高中群进行推广，在公司内部琐事的邮件组里也参与了讨论。其实，我还应大家要求发起了一次团购，使用Google Form报名和Google Wallet付款，参与团购的人均分所购号码的奖金，从而大大提高中奖概率。不幸的是，这件事违反了公司禁止员工聚众赌博的规定，被紧急叫停。在这次团购短短几分钟的生命期里，我就已经收到了8位同事的付款，最后只能退款作罢。
最后，我的全球销售额是222美元，成为了名副其实的全球彩票代购领跑者。坐拥111张客户票+3张自购票的我，在今年最大的一次机遇面前，我占尽了先机。
这次是名副其实的购买狂潮，我几乎所有的留学生朋友都买了，几乎所有的同事也参与了，尤其是对于华人这个美国的外国人群体，是非常罕见的。在我去过的711和Safeway购票点，每个人都在买，生怕错过参与历史的机会。
最后开出的大奖花落南加州的Chino Hills（洛杉矶附近），我和我的客户们无缘大奖。不过想想也是好事，事实上很多彩票头奖的中奖者的人生都被毁掉了，这种钱来的快去的也快。并且我无需为复杂的法律关系而头痛，这种代购行为在法律上仍然算是我购买的彩票（尤其是对非美国没有社会保险号码SSN的购票人），然后我领奖后会按照赠与行为给我的客户，于是会被双重征税。
有趣的是，114张票中有三张4刀小奖（都是中了power number)，中奖率 1/38，非常接近官网公布的理论概率 1/38.32。
这个事件最大的好处，就是给了每个人重温自己梦想的机会。试想一下，如果你中了大奖，会有什么打算。我的同事们，有的说会请全组人去世界上任何的一个地方度假；另一位同事说会分期30年拿奖金，把第一年奖金分给同事，第二年分给家人，但是他怀疑是否能顺利逃脱前两年的抢劫与追杀。有人说要买一个小岛，有人想买下湖人队。我公布的计划是全职写博客，巧合的是中科大校花牛牛同学公布的也是要全职写博客，并且还要请全球知名博主为她的博客打广告。
这件事对我个人最大的好处便是，我的人品升值到了15亿美元。我的所有客户，都非常相信我在中大奖的情况下不会跑路，从而放心让我代购。不错，在15亿美元和我的人品之间，我会坚守自己的人品。
这个世界上，有远比金钱更有价值的财富，有远比赚钱更有乐趣的事业。
下面是我做国际彩票代购的一些有意思的截图：
下面是我的经历的英文版，供歪果仁朋友阅读
My Credit Worths 1.5 Billion
Yang Lan onced interviewed Heavenly King Andy Lau (actor Liu Dehua), “In your 30+ years careers, is there any secret to success?” Andy Lau said, “Only one thing that I am really proud of, which is my credit.”
As no one won top prize of US lottery Power Ball last Saturday, it creates a record-breaking high prize which makes the lottery a positive-expectation investment and triggered a lottery madness across the US. After 10+ years, in my favorite 7-11 store, I bought a lottery ticket again. After sharing in my wechat frend circle, two friends on China trip vacations asked me to buy it for them. So I started reselling lottery.
I posted an announcement: “Now selling the only positive expectation lottery in history, Power Ball. Accept both domestic and international orders. $2 each, no extra fees. Give me a number, or we do it randomly. I will send out pictures after I get the tickets. I don’t take a cut, you get all the prizes if it happens. Tips is welcomed. In case I checked the wrong numbers, I won’t refund or pay your loss. I got 2 orders already!”
During operation, my clients send me money via wechat mobile payment, aka Hong Bao. I buy it, photo it and send the message. Usually, I will take pictures with a latest newspaper, San Jose Mercury News or USA Today, so it feels more historic.
Then I started promotions in my wechat groups: my college group and my high school group. I also replied a thread in my company’s misc maillist. Actually, per my colleagues’ request, I started a pool. Using Google Form for sign-up and Google Wallet for payment, all participants can share the total prizes, so everyone gets a better chance. Unfornately, it violates company policy that we cannot organize employees for gambling. So I have to stop it. During the several minutes life time of my pool, I already got 8 payments into my account, which I have to refund.
My global revenue is 222 USD, so I am definitely the forerunner of international lottery resales business. With 111 (for clients) + 3 (for myself) tickets at hands, I am taking over the biggest advantage facing the biggest opportunity this year.
In this lottery madness, almost all of my US classmates involved, almost all of my teammates bought in. It is very rare, especially for foreigners like us in US. During my visits to 7-11 and Safeway, everyone was doing it so that they don’t miss the chance to join a historic event.
Finally, someone in southcal Chino Hills (near LA) won the top prize, while my clients and I are not so lucky. But it is not a bad thing. Actually, most top prize winners didn’t end up well. Because easy money goes easily. I am happy that I don’t have to deal with my lawyer for the mixed relations. By law, such resales still count me as the owner, and I can only give the prize to my client as a gift. So it is double taxed.
Interestingly, there are 3 four-dollar prizes whose frequency is 1/38. It is very close to the theory chance published on Power Ball website: 1/38.32
The biggest benefits from this event is that it gives everyone a moment to rethink their dreams. Think about it, what’s your plan if you win. Among my colleagues, one said she will invite every team members to any place on the earth for vacation; another teammate said he will take the prize over 30 years, share first year’s money with team, share second year’s money with familiy, but he is not sure if he can survive the first two years’ raids. A girl said she will buy an island. A boy said he will buy the Lakers.
My posted plan is to be full-time blogger. By coincidence, Miss USTC Niu Niu also wants to be a full-time blogger, and she plans to buy global famous bloggers to advertise for her.
The biggest benefit for me is that, my credit value now raises up to 1.5 billion. Among all my clients, they do trust me not to run away with the top prize, so that they buy it from me. Yes, given a single choice between 1.5 billion and my credit, I will definitely choose my credit.
In this world, there are wealth which is way more valuable than money, and careers which is way more interesting than making money.
中文版原文链接：我的人品价值15亿美金
英文版原文链接：My Credit Worths 1.5 Billion
我的国际博客：Zhe Song’s International Blog
当当当！一分钟速测：你有没有运气中15亿美元大奖！
知道大家心急，我就不废话这概率是怎么算出来的了，想看计算过程的戳原文：
DT财经 | 如果连续抛29次硬币都是同一面，美国“强力球”15亿美元大奖就是你的！
这概率约等于：
连续29次扔硬币都是同一面
连续7个月次次拍中沪牌
被陨石击中1.44次
在美国被雷劈中1.39次
也就是说你要被雷劈两次，或者被雷劈一次，再被陨石砸一次，才确保你的“运气”完全可以中“强力球”彩票头奖。
呵呵，我还是乖乖去搬砖吧。。。。
你去买彩票的路上被车撞死的几率；高于你中头彩
和一个人被雷连续劈216次的概率一样
怎么不像国内一样奖池大了就有个超级大奖产生像收割韭菜一样呢？终究还是国情决定吧
美国媒体报道说是遭雷劈200次的概率 外焦里嫩
还是好好搬砖吧……
这样的彩票， 返奖几率太低。 最低最容易的一档， 我花2美金， 有38分之一的机会中4美金。
大脑有病才买