Commentary: Chinese economic transition testing global investors’ wisdom, courage
Jan. 22, 2016 (Xinhua) — As the Chinese economy is undergoing profound restructuring and transition, international investors seem to be split in their judgment about the prospects for China’s capital market.
Some people believe that the Chinese capital market is experiencing a major crisis, of which they try to take advantage with speculative actions and even vicious shorting activities.
The latest example is that some radical speculators tried to short sell the Chinese currency yuan, which has been depreciating against the U.S. dollar recently. However, with the Chinese monetary authority taking effective measures to stabilize the value of the yuan, those speculators are expected to suffer huge losses.
Meanwhile, many other investors see new opportunities in the transformation of the Chinese economy.
According to data from the London-based consulting firm Preqin Ltd, in 2015, global venture capital made 1,555 investments in China’s startups with a total worth of 37 billion U.S. dollars, up 147 percent over the previous year, showing the investors’ confidence in China’s pro-innovation policy and business-friendly environment.
In a mature market economy, both speculative shorting and long-term investment are free choices of investors, and therefore should not be labeled as “right or wrong” or “good or bad.”
But given the unique nature of the Chinese economy, currently the world’s second largest, it should be fair to say that the choices made on China often reflect an investor’s wisdom and courage.
As an old Chinese saying goes: To catch a big fish, one must cast a long line. The ancient Chinese wisdom fits the current Chinese economic situation well.
Many leading economists and scholars have pointed out that while China’s economic restructuring is a challenging and arduous mission and the transitional period could be lengthy and painful, China is at no risk of a recession and the current 6.9 percent economic growth rate is still good enough to sustain the country’s long-term prosperity.
Meanwhile, with the Chinese government actively pushing forward a series of fundamental reforms and supporting innovation-based business startups, both domestic entrepreneurs and foreign investors are expected to benefit from the economic restructuring process.
For example, the government has spared no efforts to cut excessive production capacity, boost domestic consumption and encourage the development of the service sector. It has also granted more market access to private capital and foreign investment.
The latest report from the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that last year nearly two thirds of its member companies made profit in China, and three quarters saw good investment returns. The report also found that most of the member companies were optimistic about the future growth of the Chinese market, and over 90 percent of them viewed innovation as the key to their future success in China.
A smart, far-sighted investor would seize the opportunity arising from China’s economic restructuring, and achieve a win-win outcome by investing in China’s future and reaping the fruits of China’s reform and robust new economy.
As for those who want to bet on the “ultimate failure” of the Chinese economy, they should look back at the past four decades, which witnessed China’s growth from an underdeveloped economy into a global economic powerhouse through continuous reform and opening up.
They should also take into consideration the fact that the Chinese government has been constantly improving the country’s market regulatory system and legal system. As a result, reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences.
And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.
回复 ( 10 )
此地无银三百两，央行的弹药顶不住了。不要说面对国际大炒家，连小炒家的进攻都顶不住
我真是服了这群猪了，发这种文章不是摆明了心虚吗？再说你的法律能管得了国际炒家吗？股市就这么搞了一次，赔了个底掉。现在有用同样的手段搞汇市，真的是觉得赔的还不够吗？
某人曾高喊暴力救市，结果呢？现在又要暴力救市一次，不同的是这次是汇市，代价是每月1000亿美元。
泻药
上个月看到一篇文章，说一个金融业者对做空的看法，我归纳一下
做空和做多都是一种正常行为，其中在存在泡沫是情况下，做空是一种善举，它让那些金玉其外败絮其中的证券露出它本来的面目，体现出它本来的价值，做空者可以通过这种善举获得利润作为报酬
相对的做多也是一样
现在是一个什么情况呢？在天朝政府的眼里，只要说出做空，就是恶意的，你普通地卖股票卖人民币只是交易，一旦政府说你做空了，你就是跟国家作对，你就完蛋了，等着接受国家权力机关正义的铁锤吧
个人理解，
证券方面，政府本意只是做给小散看，为了维稳替他们撒气，但现在在宣传舆论上已经造成了这样的影响，所以你也可以认为，国家或许知道自家的证券都是一坨屎，但还有这么多散户看着呢，谁敢砸盘砸得大家游街了谁就是跟我找麻烦和我作对
人民币汇率方面
这些天有大神分析得很透彻了，我概括一下，就是因为人民币汇率不自由，所以存在兑美元在岸汇率和离岸汇率，近期主要是去年2015年8月底开始，由于美元走强，离岸汇率跌成狗，而由于不可能三角原理，在岸汇率强行维持不变，于是中间产生了汇率差，国际资本能够通过汇差一进一出赚取差价，方式就是做空，所以最近新闻上播报的国家持有外汇迅速减少就是因为这个原因，因为【人民币根本不符合现在这个价值】
这两天做了什么动作，人民币汇率强行止跌了，但国际资本找到了港币作为突破口继续套利，所以这两天港币突然大跌逼着香港金融部门公开表示密切关注，就是这个原因
人民币国际化估计是泡汤不用想了，央妈荷包里的美元还迅速消失各种满头包，按照一贯的行政干涉作风自然要找政府帮忙撑头了，人民币可以干涉，港币你怎么直接插手啊？
所以前两天我说李嘉诚的智囊团真是不简单，正好在高位出逃
形势所迫，顾不得吃相了
我不知道怎么区分恶意做空和善意做空。
我最怕有关部门会来找我，因为我买那个股票那个股票就跌，这是不是恶意做空？
因为赵家有三只手
新华社在一篇评论文章中称，随着中国央行采取措施来稳定人民币汇率，一些试图做空人民币的“激进”投机客将遭遇巨大损失。
鲁莽投机和恶意做空将面临更高的交易成本甚至可能是严重的法律后果，中国政府试图改善市场监管机制和法律体系。
中国政府拥有充足的资源和政策工具来确保经济形势处于控制之下，并且应对任何外部挑战。
该评论来自最新刊发的新华社英文评论，结尾部分强调做空人民币的投机客将遭遇巨大损失，受到法律严惩。
以下为新华社全文：
Commentary: Chinese economic transition testing global investors’ wisdom, courage
Jan. 22, 2016 (Xinhua) — As the Chinese economy is undergoing profound restructuring and transition, international investors seem to be split in their judgment about the prospects for China’s capital market.
Some people believe that the Chinese capital market is experiencing a major crisis, of which they try to take advantage with speculative actions and even vicious shorting activities.
The latest example is that some radical speculators tried to short sell the Chinese currency yuan, which has been depreciating against the U.S. dollar recently. However, with the Chinese monetary authority taking effective measures to stabilize the value of the yuan, those speculators are expected to suffer huge losses.
Meanwhile, many other investors see new opportunities in the transformation of the Chinese economy.
According to data from the London-based consulting firm Preqin Ltd, in 2015, global venture capital made 1,555 investments in China’s startups with a total worth of 37 billion U.S. dollars, up 147 percent over the previous year, showing the investors’ confidence in China’s pro-innovation policy and business-friendly environment.
In a mature market economy, both speculative shorting and long-term investment are free choices of investors, and therefore should not be labeled as “right or wrong” or “good or bad.”
But given the unique nature of the Chinese economy, currently the world’s second largest, it should be fair to say that the choices made on China often reflect an investor’s wisdom and courage.
As an old Chinese saying goes: To catch a big fish, one must cast a long line. The ancient Chinese wisdom fits the current Chinese economic situation well.
Many leading economists and scholars have pointed out that while China’s economic restructuring is a challenging and arduous mission and the transitional period could be lengthy and painful, China is at no risk of a recession and the current 6.9 percent economic growth rate is still good enough to sustain the country’s long-term prosperity.
Meanwhile, with the Chinese government actively pushing forward a series of fundamental reforms and supporting innovation-based business startups, both domestic entrepreneurs and foreign investors are expected to benefit from the economic restructuring process.
For example, the government has spared no efforts to cut excessive production capacity, boost domestic consumption and encourage the development of the service sector. It has also granted more market access to private capital and foreign investment.
The latest report from the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that last year nearly two thirds of its member companies made profit in China, and three quarters saw good investment returns. The report also found that most of the member companies were optimistic about the future growth of the Chinese market, and over 90 percent of them viewed innovation as the key to their future success in China.
A smart, far-sighted investor would seize the opportunity arising from China’s economic restructuring, and achieve a win-win outcome by investing in China’s future and reaping the fruits of China’s reform and robust new economy.
As for those who want to bet on the “ultimate failure” of the Chinese economy, they should look back at the past four decades, which witnessed China’s growth from an underdeveloped economy into a global economic powerhouse through continuous reform and opening up.
They should also take into consideration the fact that the Chinese government has been constantly improving the country’s market regulatory system and legal system. As a result, reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences.
And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.
我感觉是中央没底了，参考当年六月的时候新华社是怎么喊的，现在如何了。
这样能解决问题吗？只能说错过了好时机进行金融改革，本来在几年前，没有那么大资本流出压力时就该做的改革，现在被动被很多应急的事件干扰，都有些反应过度了，公众也一样，连同外国金融市场也都产生连琐反应。
凡事都有两面，这样也许可以暂时稳定汇率，但会付出人民币真正国际化停滞的代价，鱼与熊掌不可兼得，取舍分寸把握，才是管理水平的表现。
为了不违反知乎规则，我不就做“恶意评价”了。
新华社的社评也过于僵硬，容易让人利用，要柔中带刚，使用西方人的表达方式。
很多经济学者天真地以为，外汇市场是纯粹的市场规律在起作用。其实，市场规律只是一方面，特别是短期内，国际投机势力是可以兴风作浪的。看看98年的亚洲金融危机就很清楚：
1992
索罗斯首次出手狙击英镑，击垮英格兰银行，拿下第一滴血。旗下量子基金名声大振，索罗斯净赚10亿美元。
1994
成功狙击墨西哥比索，使整个墨西哥金融体系倒退5年。
1997
量 子基金最风光的一年，在东南亚各国沉浸在资本盛宴中时，索罗斯在瞬息之间攻陷泰国，仅当天泰铢兑美元汇率就暴挫逾17%，外汇及其他金融市场也随之陷入混 乱。随后索罗斯转头攻击印度尼西亚、菲律宾、缅甸、马来西亚等与泰国经济连带较深的国家，同样屡战屡胜。外界推测这一战，索罗斯净赚一百多亿美元。
打个比方，人生有得意有失意，当你失意时投机者会乘机再踩你一脚，让你失意加倍甚至三倍四倍，投机者从你过度的失意中获得快感。在金融攻击中也是如此，本来这个国家的外汇只需要跌10%，但是在投机者的舆论造势，制造恐慌气氛，同时在金融市场上提前布局，做空外汇股票或者期货，攻击目标是这个国家的外汇跌越多越好，20%，40%，50%，以期短期获得投机利润。这笔投机利润哪里来，从这个国家来。
没有什么能够阻挡中华民族的和平崛起！当今世界格局，在衣冠楚楚的规则背后，是弱肉强食的实力较量。中华国家和传统文化的崛起，会改变世界，让世界真正更加文明！
zf采取手段来稳定汇率，提振信心，避免恐慌抛售，汇率大幅度波动。
有没有人恶意太主观，反正做空的老是背锅，蒙受损失。
我觉得中国经济的信心蹦的挺紧